World Bank, the era has weakened the fragile reminders, create a buffer - the cumulative reserves for emergencies.
Mr. Andrew Burns, manager of group development trend. Department of Economic Development. World Bank (WORLD. BANK) said at a seminar on "Prospects for Global and Thai Economy Amidst Uncertainties" that 56 years is the global economy is weak and fragile. If there is bad news to come, it will affect quite a lot. While it is good news to have much effect. It is evident from the trend of the U.S. economy and the euro zone improved slightly. But it does not have much effect on the world economy as a whole.
The view that the growth of developing countries is not as high as past growth. This year is expected to grow at 5.5% of the growth in the past, but was able to maintain 7-8% growth resumes. And it is steadily growing. The developing countries should improve production efficiency. Increase the per capita income of the population increased. And a buffer in case of emergency. By maintaining fiscal discipline at the race track to solve. The reserve for use in times of severe crisis.
Ms. Asada's skill Pow Phichit a senior World Bank's Office of International Economics, said the World Bank predicts growth of Thailand's economy this year will grow at a rate of 5% amid global economic uncertainty. Which is higher than the projected 55-year growth is expected to grow by 4.7% since the year 55 the output of the country is affected by the eurozone crisis. Impact on demand in the world market. The manufacturing sector in the country is not able to produce a fully After the heavy flooding in 54 years.
The factors supporting the growth of Thailand's economy this year from the recovery of the manufacturing sector in the country. After the flood crisis in the late 54 years, the manufacturing sector, which has been produced over the full year. And the amount of foreign capital flowing into the country a lot. Foreign investors to invest in Thailand turned up. While commodity prices in world markets lower.
Export growth in the years 56 to 55 years, but still better than no growth. By a growth of approximately 5.5% of the 55 grew 3.6% investment in infrastructure sector to encourage investment, the government grew to 15%, the momentum for the domestic economy grew by. as well.
However, Thailand has many risks. Evaluation of the World Bank estimated that the global economy is recovering slowly. It grew by 2.4%, which would affect the export sector. As a result, commodity prices fell. Rubber prices expected this year at 30.03 U.S. dollars / tonne, down from U.S. $ 3.38 / kg in year 55.
As expected, the price of rice is 540 U.S. dollars / ton, down from 55 last year to 563 U.S. dollars / ton. The price of rice is likely to drop to around $ 20 U.S. each year - 57 tonnes in the year to cut down to 520 U.S. dollars / ton. These items pawned, which comes from the government. The store stocks a lot of rice. The price of rice fell. It will also affect the income of farmers as well.
There is also a risk of an increase in the minimum wage for 300 baht / day across the country. More than 10% increase is too fast. Make the many adjustments not. If we are to have the least impact on the minimum wage should be increased gradually. So that the operator can set the pace. And the risk of spending the government's water management projects worth 60,000 million baht may be delayed. Finally, the risk of political instability in the country. But this year is no different from a year ago.
Thailand's public debt will rise to 50% of GDP, slightly looks that do not affect much of the country's fiscal position. Thailand's economy can grow more than 4 to 4.5%, but there is concern about the potential of a debt obligation of the State to the State Bank. It is recommended that the government reduce fuel consumption in the short term. In order to keep it in reserve as a buffer in times of emergency events.
Ms. Asada's skill also mentioned the baht appreciating rapidly in the that will impact on the import of machinery and raw materials was down. The cost is lower. Operators which can be used as an opportunity to import machinery to improve production efficiency and better.
It is also seen that the baht appreciation is not an attack on the currency. However, due to the inflow of foreign capital in Asia. In particular, Thailand The capital inflow is invested in short-term bond market and the stock market. And the probability that the speculative hot money in the short term. Private sector should be more careful.
The trend of the baht is likely to come up during the football for many years. If the flow of foreign money into the passive. Likely to remain strong against the baht. Which affect the output significantly. Must be fluctuation in the value of money and risk management as well. It is expected that the export is hedging it already.
Mr. Wattana Sknts Enlightened Faculty of Economics. University life can fairly said that the investment in infrastructure is not the only way to build a sustainable and economic security of the country. By not taking into account the value returned is clear and adequate. The infrastructure of the country is composed of several elements, such as tackling corruption. Restructuring and labor productivity. Solutions equality etc. helps Thailand disrupt countries income have